"13 Keys to the White House" for Donald Trump: Election Observation

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Abstract

Since 1984, the predictive model for determining the winner of the presidential election, "13 Keys to the White House", developed by A. Lichtman and V. Keilis-Borok, has been successfully used in American political science. Based on this model, the author conducts remote election monitoring and offers his own forecast of the expected outcome of the 2024 presidential elections in the United States. American voters are highly likely to vote for Donald Trump, who was predicted to become the 47th president of the United States. The increasing polarization of the American electorate is considered within the framework of the sociological and economic theory of electoral behavior.

About the authors

V. I Fedorov

Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences (INION RAS); Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Email: vifedorov@fa.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4173-1358
Candidate of Sciences (Political), Senior Researcher; Assistant of the Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences and Mass Communications Moscow, Russian Federation; Moscow, Russian Federation

References

  1. The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the U.S. Electorate. Pew Research Center. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/09/23/the-changing-racial-and-ethnic-composition-of-the-u-s-electorate/ (accessed 26.07.2024).
  2. Black Lives Matter Statement on Kamala Harris Securing Enough Delegates to Become Democratic Nominee. BLM. Available at: https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-lives-matter-statement-on-kamala-harris-securing-enough-delegates-to-become-democratic-nominee/ (accessed 24.07.2024).
  3. United States Core CPI YoY. Available at: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ECONOMICS-USCCPI/ (accessed 24.07.2024).
  4. The Employment Situation – June 2024. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf (accessed 24.07.2024).
  5. World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024. 47 p. Available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/up-loads/sites/45/WESP_2024_Web.pdf (accessed 24.07.2024).
  6. What the data says about immigrants in the U.S. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/key-findings-about-us-immigrants/ (accessed 30.07.2024).
  7. Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022. United States Census Bureau. Available at: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p20-586.html (accessed 26.07.2024).
  8. The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the U.S. Electorate. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/09/23/the-changing-racial-and-ethnic-composition-of-the-u-s-electorate/ (accessed 26.07.2024).
  9. Read the Transcript of J.D. Vance’s Convention Speech. NYT. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/politics/read-the-transcript-of-jd-vances-convention-speech.html (accessed 26.07.2024).
  10. Nevada 2024 Presidential Election Polls. Available at: https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/nevada (accessed 02.08.2024).
  11. Карпович О.Г., Гришанов А.А. 2022. Долгий путь – куда? Россия в глобальной политике. Т. 20, № 2, с. 184–198. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6439-2022-20-2-184-198.
  12. Karpovich, O.G., Grishanov, A.A. 2022. Dolgii put' – kuda? [Long way to where?] (In Russ.). Russia in Global Affairs, № 2(20), P. 184–198.
  13. Манн М. Власть в XXI столетии: беседы с Джоном А. Холлом / пер. с англ. К. Бандуровского. Издательский дом Высшей школы экономики. 2014. 208 с.
  14. Mann, M. Vlast' v XXI stoletii: besedy s Dzhonom A. Khollom [Power in the 21st Century. Conversations with John A. Hall] (In Russ., translated from English). HSE University Publishing House., Moscow, 2014.
  15. Саква Р. 2024. Великое разрушение. Россия в глобальной политике. Т. 22, № 4, с. 37–53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6439-2024-22-4-37-53.
  16. Sakwa, R. 2024. Velikoe razrushenie [Great destruction] (In Russ.). Russia in Global Affairs, № 22(4), P. 37–53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6439-2024-22-4-37-53.
  17. Федоров В.И. 2024. Влияние явки избирателей на легитимность президентских выборов в мире. Известия Саратовского университета. Новая серия. Серия: Социология. Политология. 2024. Т. 24, вып. 2. с. 201–207. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18500/1818-9601-2024-24-2-201-207.
  18. Fedorov, V.I. 2024. Vliianie iavki izbiratelei na legitimnost' prezidentskikh vyborov v mire [The impact of voter turnout on the legitimacy of presidential elections in the worldwide] (In Russ.). Izvestiya of Saratov University. Sociology. Politology, Vol. 24, Issue 2, P. 201–207 (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.18500/1818-9601-2024-24-2-201-207.
  19. Черных М.А. 2024. Миграция в США с Юга и позиция администрации Байдена. Международная жизнь. № 3. с. 90–101.
  20. Chernykh, M.A. 2023. Migratsiia v SShA s Iuga i pozitsiia administratsii Baidena [Migration to the USA from the South and the Position of the Biden Administration] (In Russ.). International Affairs. No. 3, P. 90–101.
  21. Шведова Н.А. 2023. Президентская гонка – 2024: портрет в семейном интерьере. Россия и Америка в XXI веке. № 5. Available at: https://rusus.jes.su/s207054760028401-8-1/. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18254/S207054760028401-8.
  22. Shvedova, N. 2023. Prezidentskaia gonka – 2024: portret v semeinom inter'ere [Presidential race – 2024: a portrait in a family interior] (In Russ.). Russia and America in the 21st Century, No 5. Available at: https://rusus.jes.su/s207054760028401-8-1/. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18254/S207054760028401-8.
  23. Arrow, K. Social Choice and Individual Values. N.Y.: Wiley, 1951.
  24. Black, D. The Theory of Committees and Elections. Cambridge Univ. Press, 1958.
  25. Downs, A. An Economic Theory of Democracy. N.Y., Harper and Row, 1957.
  26. Fiorina, M. Retrospective Voting in American Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press. 1981.
  27. Lichtman, A.J. Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc, 2012. 212 p.
  28. Lipset, S.M., Rokkan, S. 1990. Cleavage Structures, Party System, and Voter Alignments. The West European Party System. Oxford, P. 91–111.
  29. May, K. 1952. A Set of Independent Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Simple Majority Decision. Econometrica, № 20, P. 680–684.
  30. McKelvey, R. 1976. Intransitivities in Multidimensional Voting Models. Journal of Economic Theory, № 12, P. 72–78.
  31. Timofeev, I.N. 2024. Trump or Harris: No Difference for Moscow. Russia in Global Affairs, 22(4), P. 188–192. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2024-22-4-188-192.

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML
Download

Copyright (c) 2024 Russian Academy of Sciences